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Iran will continue its program to develop nuclear weapons because its leaders are convinced it is in their interest. At the very least, nukes will give the Islamic Republic a level of security it has not had during the 36-year standoff with its two primary antagonists: the United States and Israel.
The implications of the past 25 years of warfare in the region are not lost on the religious and secular leaders of Iran. A U.S.-led coalition of nations twice swatted aside Iraq’s then-formidable military with relative ease – in 1990 and 2003 – the latter conflict leading to the occupation of Iraq. The resulting political mess and sectarian conflict continues to plague the region.
Iran’s leaders see nuclear weapons as a necessary deterrent to U.S. and Israeli aggression. (Israel is believed to possess nuclear weapons, although it does not publicly acknowledge it.) Their possession would make Iran essentially invasion-proof and raise it to the level of a global player.
The current negotiations between the U.S. and Iran to limit/delay Iran’s nuclear program is reminiscent of the 15-year saga of negotiations of “frameworks”, agreements, and concessions that resulted in North Korea’s completion of nuclear weapon tests in the mid-2000s. President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry seem determined to conclude a deal at all costs, arguing that the alternatives are either war or having no monitoring of Iran’s nuclear program. On April 5, the president stated “I’ve been very clear that Iran will not get a nuclear weapon on my watch, and I think they should understand that we mean it.” Note that the president’s “watch” ends in less than two years.
While negotiations are ongoing, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia (Iran’s principal Islamic rival in the region) are drifting toward a confrontation with Iran over its support of the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Iran’s inroads with the Shia-dominated government of Iraq and the military advisors it supplied in the conflict with ISIL have further agitated the Saudis and western leaders.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (recently re-elected) has been a fierce critic of the negotiations, believing that the proposed framework paves the way for Iran’s nuke dreams. It remains to be seen whether Israel will take unilateral military action against Iran’s nuclear sites and what additional conflict in the region would result. Will Saudi Arabia stand pat, or see Iran as a threat that must be met with its own nuclear program?
The most that any agreements signed with the U.S. (or any other nations) will do is slow Iran’s efforts, but not stop them.
